Low birth rate, low life expectancy, old age, high immigration. The demographics of Bulgaria with this cocktail inevitably continue to decline. Of the nine million inhabitants in 1985, the number remained at 7.4 million during the 2011 census, up from 6.9 million today.

The Bulgarian Statistical Institute expects a population of 6.1 million by 2040. But a new study published by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and the University of St. Clement Ohrid in Sofia makes a poor diagnosis (1). Authors Georgi Bardarov and Nadezhda Ilyeva predict that Bulgaria will not have more than 5.4 million inhabitants in 19 years. Their optimism expects 5.8 million, and the pessimist crosses the five million mark. Thus, a country that has lost 22% of its workforce may lose 22% again, or more.

Two-thirds of the population deserts

Residents will focus on cities. Populated deserts, with a population density of less than ten people per kilometer², 69% of the territory of Bulgaria will be multiplied and affected in two decades, in 2016 it was 23%, explained Nadezhda Ilyeva on Bulgarian national radio. By this time, they estimate that 40% of Bulgarian villages, comprising only the very elderly population, will practically die.

Read. “Demographic Winter”, Pope Francis’ deep concerns

Can Bulgaria change this trend? First, 200,000 Bulgarians returned home during the epidemic. “Is there anything to stop them?” “, Georgi Bardarov asks on the radio. In his opinion the expectations are very high, referring to the case of Ireland, which a hundred years ago was extraordinarily restored when demographic, economic and social indicators were very bad.

Bulgaria is one of the 10% countries in the world with the most favorable natural living conditions. Climate change and overpopulation in the world will make the Bulgarian region more attractive. ” He wants to believe.

Demographic recovery is announced as one of the strategic goals of the European Recovery Plan for Bulgaria. But economist Krassen Stanchev lamented on national radio last May that the plan did not include anything clear in meaning.