The Miami Heat had a chance to end the Eastern Conference Finals on Friday night, but the Boston Celtics took a 70-50 lead in the second half with a 12-point lead in Game 5.
Although the Heat didn’t get a job in Game 5, they made such a strong start to the series that they are still 3-2 up and have two more chances to advance to the finals. For the first time since 2014. The bad news is that their 3-point shooting left them completely.
The heat turned on them Poor 3-point performance In Game 5 franchise playoff history (at least 30 attempts), Down went 7 out of 36 from own to continue a worrying trend. In the last four games, the Heat are 2-2 – more defeats than they have ever been in the entire playoffs – they applied 160 3-pointers and scored only 43, coming out at 26.9 percent. In Game 5, they were 18 percent pitiful. As a result, they are now the worst 3-point shooting team out of the four conference finalists.
Obviously that’s a bad sign, but it’s amazing because of Miami’s track record. It ranks second in the league with 37.9 percent in 3-point shooting during the regular season. This is the third time in 38.6 per cent of playoff teams before this recent skid. We know what happened next.
Two big names
This is a team issue and everyone in the Heat is shooting at this current time worse than ever before in the playoffs. That said, two names really stand out here: Jay Croder and Goran Dragik. Both are one-third of the Heat’s 3-point effort, with 18.2 percent and 28.6 percent in the last four games, respectively.
Here’s how steep the drop-off is for these two:
Top 10 Playoff Games |
3.5 |
8.4 |
41.7% |
The last four games |
1.5 |
8.3 |
18.2% |
Difference |
-2.0 |
-0.1 |
-23.5% |
Crowder is almost strictly a catch and shooter, so he gets a lot of clean shapes. He has not been able to make them. Here is a sample of some of the more extensive open shots he recently lost:
NBA players often have to make those shots, but despite Croder’s shooting sluggishness, he’s not like an elite sharpshooter. In fact, even at the start of the playoffs, his form with the Heat in general was a lier tlier. For his career, he is a 34 percent 3-point shooter, but has had 44.5 percent of attempts in the regular season since trading with Miami, and 41.7 percent in the playoffs before the last four games.
At some point there always comes a regression, and Crowder and Heat have to hope he can stabilize things soon.
Top 10 Playoff Games |
2.7 |
6.9 |
39.1% |
The last four games |
2.0 |
7.0 |
28.6% |
Difference |
-0.7 |
+0.1 |
-10.5% |
The shooting of the Drojik did not fall harder than that of the Drew, but it was worse than the other high volumes of Heat. Although he did not rely on catch-and-shoot attempts like his classmate, Dragik missed a fair share of easy chances:
Meanwhile, the Celtics’ increased pressure over the past few games has made life difficult for Dragik and forced him into some tougher forms. It is clear that 36.3% of the shooters in his career are better shooters than the ones shown in the Slovenian 2-5 games. The question for him and the Heat is whether they can prove it in the next two games.
Quality of shots
As the video clips of Croder and Dragik show, there is no ability to open the issue of heat during this stretch. In fact, according to the league’s tracking data, the number of their “Open” and “Wide Open” 3-point attempts has increased slightly in the last four games.
Top 10 Playoff Games |
4.4 |
13.5 |
32.6% |
6.3 |
13.7 |
46% |
The last four games |
4.5 |
15.8 |
28.6% |
3.0 |
13.8 |
21.8% |
Difference |
+0.1 |
+2.3 |
-4.0% |
-3.3 |
+0.1 |
-24.2% |
It’s a make or miss league, as the saying goes, unfortunately for the Heat, I haven’t seen them lately. On some levels, making more shots is as simple as that. After all, they get clear enough opportunities. But, of course, this is not the whole story.
Under Brad Stevens, the Celtics are one of the best teams in the league in limiting their opponents’ 3-point shooting, and it continues to do so in these playoffs, where teams shoot from a depth of 30.4 percent against Boston. They have long, varied defenders within limits, and run teams hard.
So, while the data say the Heat are getting the equivalent of “open” and “wide open” shots, Miami coach Eric Spolstra says the Celtics are thwarting their offense and making those attempts even more difficult.
“They are very good at defending the 3-point line.” Spoilstra said. They replaced us with some of our usual Rhythm 3s. “
It should not affect the defensive end
The worst defensive games of the season are against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Final. Surprisingly, they both lost. The most interesting thing is that those games also match the worst 3-point-shooting games in the heat of the playoffs. In Game 3, they fired 27.3 percent from 3-point ground, with a defensive rate of 117. Then on Friday night in Game 5, he scored 19.4 percent marks from the depths and a defensive rate of 118.6.
At the defensive end you will have tough nights, as well as times when you can’t afford a basket. What can’t happen anyway is that the first leads to the previous. Spoilstra and drag Believe me it was like that in Game 5.
“Regardless of whether it happens or not, it does not affect your commitment to the other side of the floor.” Spoilstra said. “It felt like it happened.”
“I think we’re getting good looking, we didn’t create shots,” Dragick said. “But it should not affect our defense. Every time we miss a shot we have to go back and load it into the paint and harden it.”
Locking the defensive end no matter what happens in their 3-point shooting will be a big key to warm up the rest of the series. When they were committed to that part of the ball, they showed at various points along the way that Celtics ’lives would be miserable.
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