The heat is not leaving the Mediterranean, and another subtropical flow is expected next week (As discussed in this article). But what about the rest of the hemisphere? Climatic autumn began a week ago, and the first effects of physiological summer decay are evident beyond the Arctic Circle, where temperatures begin to drop significantly.

For this reason, The polar vortexA large polar depression that controls the winter fate of the Northern Hemisphere. But how does winter turn out in Europe? Well, they are A few pointers The ones currently available come from the Pacific Ocean, not the North Pole.

Let me be clear, we will be writing alone for the next few hours speculations About the current and future situation of some parameters of the Pacific Ocean, the world’s largest body of water, which can influence the climate of the entire globe or a large part of it.

the girl – Surely you have heard in the last weeks of the return “Nina“, but many people still don’t know what it is.
La Nina, as well as El Niño, a Natural and periodic weather phenomenon Regarding Pacific Ocean Water Surface Temperature.
When we talk about “La Nina” we mean a Net cooling of equatorial waters in the central-eastern Pacific (to the Pacific coast of South America), the water warms in the west along the coast of Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines. El Nino is the exact opposite of this situation.

The phenomenon of “in this moment”.the girl“The temperature anomalies detected in the central Pacific are clearly intensifying, as demonstrated: they are even recorded. 2 degrees Celsius above average, which suggests we’re headed for a “Nina Strong.” When Nina is particularly intense, it can affect wide areas of the world, as far as Europe. From the literature on this scenario, the Azores anticyclone is more likely to rise northward between the eastern Atlantic and western Europe, with arctic descents into central Europe and the Mediterranean.

This pattern will be further strengthened by another major index PDO (Ten Year Oscillation of the Pacific) forms the same scenario as established NinaHowever, further north, or North Pacific Between Russia and North America. Here again there is a distinct warmth in the central-western sector, while in the eastern part (adjacent to the west coast) we find much cooler ocean water.

According to this current approach, in any case should be maintained or intensified in the fall, let’s talk Winters are characterized by stable phases and abrupt shocks with a very rapid arctic nature capable of scattered and inconsistent precipitation.

However, there is another variable Regarding High temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea Even between autumn and winter it can become above average. At our latitudes, warmer waters can facilitate formation Stability of anticyclonesFor this reason the theory that Often large anticyclones between the Atlantic and Europe Southern, with a consequent displacement of Arctic barriers further eastward (toward the Balkan sector or Eastern Europe). If so it will come with a winter Average or slightly above average temperatures in the Mediterranean.

Of course, these are just assumptions and very long-term trends in reliable current data. What has been written should not be taken as a prediction, so we will have to return to the topic in the coming months.