Metio: Winter 2021/22, NINA forecast distorted. We explain why this is a different season
Winter 2021/2022: Nina may be affected by winter, but there are doubtsThere are still about a month and a half leftWinterAnyway, thank you Seasonal forecasts And some Atmospheric indices We already have a general idea of what awaits us next season This may be different than in recent years. The phenomenon of The girl. Let us take stock to understand It’s about to be clear Guess one The general trend in Italy.
The latest seasonal forecasts European Center (ECMWF) to the beginning of winter marked by heat values Approximately 1 / 1.5 ° C above the reference weather average, Especially in the northern European region Between Scandinavia and Russia (Cradle of cold), Average above average in the Mediterranean Basin.
But who is to blame for these thermal defects?
LA NINA and its terms In recent months a special phenomenon called “la” has taken place The girl“.This term refers to a Temperature cooling Surface water of the Central and Eastern Pacific Oceans That’s it Affects the weather Of our planet, with different reflections Europe And Italy Although we are talking about an event happening on the other side of the world.
That is exactly what is happening Values of approximately 1 C Below the reference weather average. This discrepancy may seem insignificant, but rather involves a significant change in the level of the planet’s atmospheric circulation.
Just to give some examples:
– Some areas like Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines They see A Increased rainfall, The southernmost or northernmost regions of Africa Brazil
– The monsoon is gaining strength Southeast Asiatico as well asIndia
On the contrary, the areas in between Brazil Southern e Argentina And part of United States (Drought and fire California) Ignore Gulf of Mexico.
Results in Italy – The effects of climate change on our continent’s Pacific, especially rainfall, Increase in disturbances from the North Atlantic Especially in the first part of the season. In our mountains, therefore Name Do not miss it in the joy of winter sports lovers. But beware of cold air movements It is not uncommon for snow to soon reach the northern plains, As already happened last winter in the first weeks of December.
Beginning of winter: Mediterranean sea temperature above average in northern Europe
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