Why does the World Health Organization fear that the second year of pandemic is “more deadly than the first”?

Why does the World Health Organization fear that the second year of pandemic is "more deadly than the first"?

“Things are going well”, Covid-19 will be the second year of the Pandemic “More deadly than the first”World Health Organization (WHO) boss Tedros lamented Adanom Gabrias, In front of the media on Friday, May 14th. A finding of concern when Europe and the United States see the possibility of surviving the crisis through vaccination. Francesfo is trying to understand why the results of 2021 are heavier than 2020.

>> Kovid-19: Follow the evolution of our direct epidemic

Because the global pandemic is not declining

It is estimated that 700,000 cases per day have been identified in the coming days Johns Hopkins American University (English content), Pandemic is developing in most countries of the world. An indicator of this trend is the significant increase in the number of cases identified since the beginning of 2021. As of December 31, 2020, 83.5 million cases had been detected since the onset of the pandemic, Site In Salon Our World Data (English content). It doubled in five months. As of May 15, it is 162 million.

Mortality follows the same dynamic. The virus has killed 1.8 million people by 2020, and has already had 15 million since the beginning of this year. “We know that India and Brazil underestimate mortality, not all patients are cared for and therefore not taken into account.”, Underlining Mirzia Sofonia, an epidemiologist at the University of Montpellier. The second causes “Unfortunately a path that allows the 2020 balance sheet to be exceeded”.

This is because the variants are more interchangeable

“New variants are responsible for this impressive increase”, Explains Jonathan Rooks, an epidemiologist at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health.

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They have been identified not only in England, South Africa and Brazil, but also in India for a number of months, where B.1.617 creates daily records of new cases. “They were the engines of this wave of pollution, Guaranteed by Mirzia Sofonia. For example, the variant identified in the UK is more contagious and requires more testing than the historical difficulty of the virus. “

Because the virus is spreading to new countries

While the situation in Southeast Asian countries was relatively under control last year, the explosion in the B.1.617 variant significantly changed the situation. Singapore and Taiwan have resumed draconian measures to combat Kovid-19: restaurants and entertainment venues are closing, and gatherings are being restricted, both indoors and outdoors.

These elections by the authorities respond to the unexplained increase in pollution, while both countries have so far benefited from normal living conditions, thanks to the “Zero Covid” strategy implemented since last year. In Taiwan, 180 new cases were reported on Friday. It was 29 last day. The island state fears a resurgence of cases related to the emergence of the variant identified in India.

Other countries fear the virus because of the relative weakness of their health systems: “For example, in Nepal, there is not enough room to house so many patients. When the virus overflowed in the west last year and became less, there were no variants., Jonathan Roux recalls. These are areas that are not as badly affected as the West in the first wave. The specialist fears the arrival of the virus in Africa, which will be a continent “One of the last to gain access to vaccination”.

This is because vaccination is not yet adequate globally

Jonathan Rooks wants to comfort: “Infectious disease does not progress in immunized areas.” More than a third of Americans are now fully vaccinated against Covid-19, and if they can begin removing their masks, this situation would not be normalized. “We are at the level of vaccination, which is still very low globally.”, Mourns Mirzia Sofonia.

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An epidemiologist at the University of Montpellier also underscores the impossibility of the vaccine preventing an existing wave: “In the event of an outbreak in countries like Brazil or India, the vaccine is not saving the day. In such a situation, even the container comes too late.” India on Friday launched a campaign with the Russian vaccine Sputnik V, which was urgently approved by the authorities to prevent pollution.

Epidemiologists also condemn the uneven distribution of immunizations: “We know it works, but by leaving certain parts of the world the virus can spread more easily. If it does, we run the risk of variants appearing.”, Explains Jonathan Roux. The Kovacs program, which aims to provide doses to poor countries, has yet to see results.

“I understand why some countries want to vaccinate their children and adolescents, but I urge you to abandon this and consider giving Kovacs vaccines instead.”Asked the Director-General of the World Health Organization on Friday. The Kovacs system has lost many of the vaccines it was supposed to deliver in the second quarter of 2021. India, which produces the bulk of the program’s dosage, has banned its exports to its soil against the outbreak of an epidemic.

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