Comment: In the context of the exit from the European Union, there are a number of potential developments for Britain.

Written by David Thunder, Navara University

Britain is set to leave the European Union next Friday. Many guess it Brexit It could be the catalyst for the disintegration of the United Kingdom, or the end of Britain as we know it. The effective disintegration of the constitutional compromise that has taken place in Britain for more than three centuries opens up a bold new platform for political and constitutional experimentation.

The Scottish independence movement, which was very supportive of EU membership, may find a new lease of life as it seeks to distance itself from the English Brexiters and draw closer to Europe. The next economic alignment with the Republic of Northern Ireland will lead further north on the path to secession from Britain.

Under these circumstances, the chances of the United Kingdom surviving as a political unit from medium to long term are very low. Naturally this begs the question, what will Britain be like 20, 30, or 50 years from now, after Brexit?

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From RTE’s Brexit Republic, RTE’s Europe Editor Tony Connolly, London Correspondent Sean Whelan and Deputy Foreign Editor Cole Monghein look at the UK’s last days in the EU.

There are many factors to predict that any political and constitutional arrangement will last from medium to long. However, we may spec specify about some potential competitors. The long-term effect of Brexit was to divide Britain into three independent nation-states, with smaller versions of the British State – England, Scotland, and Wales – absorbing Northern Ireland into the Republic of Ireland.

In this case, the model of the existing state on these islands will remain relatively undamaged, but it will be increased and transferred to new political territories. So instead of a single British state being a neighbor, we will have four different states: England, Wales, Scotland and a united Ireland.

Indeed, the interests of these emerging states are likely to foster a better relationship between economic and political cooperation, public transportation, and the significant overlap of legal frameworks. This is especially so in the case of areas of the British Isles with long-term historical, economic and political ties.

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But this situation is not the only result of the current constitutional crisis. A more innovative response to Britain’s constitutional crisis would lead to the adoption of new political methods that are completely different from the relatively centralized Westminster model. The traditional model of a centralized sovereign state can be surpassed if the impetus for devolution and local political independence extends to the local and municipal levels. It will engage in forms of local self-government as opposed to centralized parliamentary rule. In this case, the separation from British unity would go hand in hand with the rejection of the relatively centralized and majority British model, the Statehood; A turning point in the remote form of political decentralization.

One familiar way to integrate political decentralization to some extent with central coordination is to form emerging new states at federal rates. A federal arrangement would give considerable economic and political autonomy to relatively small political units, subject to a shared constitution and a government with limited powers, as we now see, Swiss Confederation.

The idea that Brexit could mark the birth of a federal heritage on the British Isles may seem imaginary. But a few years ago, Brexit appeared imaginary. Few predicted that Britain would now fall into a serious constitutional crisis.

The current constitutional crisis contains the seeds for building a new future

Moreover, it could be argued that the dynamics that drove Britain out of the European Union may have already planted the seeds of federalism in Britain’s lap. After all, the crucial regional divide in the Brexit vote – among other things, between the pro – Brexit rural vote and the remaining urban vote – makes it clear that the interests of the people of Britain are shifting from the local level. Should not be effectively dealt with by a sovereign parliament. There may now be a growing appetite among disgruntled voters for a decentralized federal arrangement that can handle local needs and interests locally, and clearly distinguish them from the interests that largely unite the country.

Indeed, the challenges of balancing local and national interests and shaping the peripheral and central forces in a sustainable and sustainable manner, so that the center does not conquer boundaries, and the perimeter does not fall into anarchy, should not be underestimated. However, there are plenty of historical examples of federal politics that have existed for centuries Medieval Hansatic League, The United States And Swiss Co Federation.

Getting political predictions right is infamous, as Britain has never seen in the context of a constitutional crisis. The current constitutional crisis, like all others, contains in itself the seeds for building a new future. Only time will tell which of these will take root.

Dr. David Thunder Researcher and lecturer at the Institute for Culture and Society (Religion and Civil Society Project) Navara University

The views expressed herein are those of the author, and do not represent or reflect RTÉ’s views.