Former US Vice President and current Democrat nominee Joe Biden gestured on December 7, 2015, when he made a statement about the outcome of his talks with his Ukrainian president in Kiev.
Sergei Supinsky | AFP | Getty Images
Despite some harsh sanctions and harsh criticism, Russia has not been at the forefront of US foreign policy priorities under President Donald Trump, and appears to have ties to his rival, Vladimir Putin.
However, that could change if Democrat nominee Joe Biden wins the November 3 election, and experts say the impact of Biden’s presidency on US-Russia relations remains to be seen.
At the very least, analysts expect Biden’s victory to escalate tensions between Washington and Moscow and raise the possibility of new sanctions against Russia.
The country has already imposed international sanctions on some key areas and Russian officials close to Putin over its actions, including the capture of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, its involvement in the 2016 US elections and its involvement in a neuroscientist attack in the UK. 2018.
Mutual distrust
Biden’s victory will improve Atlantic maritime relations between the U.S. and Europe, and Europe will welcome the “renewed commitment of the US to NATO,” said Andreas Tursa, adviser to Tenio Intelligence Central and Eastern Europe.
However he acknowledged that their numbers were not enough to defeat Kremlin’s cronyism and the US Democrats.
“In general, Biden’s presidency will be detrimental to Moscow and bilateral relations will deteriorate in terms of rhetoric and property,” he said. The Democratic nominee has maintained a strong stance against the rule of President Vladimir Putin, ”Tursa said in a statement on Friday.
On the first day of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan on June 28, 2019, US President Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin (L).
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
“Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s tail to Biden is that of his vice president, especially in his attempt to impose sanctions on Russia in response to the 2014 Ukrainian crisis.
A meaningful solution to the conflict against Crimea and in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine (there are two pro-Russian regions self-proclaimed republics) still avoids Moscow and Kiev, although Germany and France may try to broker both sides.
Tursa argued without a clear process Conflict resolution in Donbass and Crimea – One region has been very active as Biden’s vice president – “Moscow cannot expect any meaningful easing of sanctions,” and Biden’s presidency will lead to more stringent implementation of existing measures.
He added that the possibility of a new embargo would also increase Alleged Russian interference in the 2020 presidential election.
Mutual interest
The new sanctions against Russia are unlikely to be implemented immediately, however, said Timothy Ash, a senior emerging market strategist at Blu-ray Asset Management.
“I think the US-Russia relationship is deteriorating, but I do not expect additional ‘pin up’ sanctions against Russia to be imposed soon,” he said.
“I think all the potential candidates for the presidency of Biden are very experienced and balanced. They do not want to impose sanctions on us in the name of sanctions.
He said that under the Biden presidency, the two sides need to study where they are tolerant of each other and engage in certain areas of mutual interest, such as arms control, and reduce the potential for conflict where strategic interests compete. Sanctions even in regions like Ukraine, Belarus and Turkey will be part of the tool kit here, but there is only one such tool. “
New start
Weapons control However, there is one area where Russian observers believe there will be mutual interest and some unity. Biden indicated in 2019 that he would like to see an extension of the major US-Russian nuclear reduction agreement, known as the New Strategic Weapons Reduction Agreement, or the implementation of something similar.
“Based on recent statements from both sides, negotiations on a new Strategic Disarmament Treaty (START) are an area where progress can be expected if Biden is elected,” said Tenio’s Tursa. “However, the deadline will be extremely challenging as the current agreement expires on February 5, 2021.”
Russia itself has acknowledged that arms control will be a positive dynamic in Biden’s presidency. In October, Putin criticized Biden for “sharp anti-Russian rhetoric” and said he had encouraged Biden’s comments on a new arms deal or a new start-up.
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