Calm down. After crossing 20,000 cases for the first time in 24 hours, Switzerland is experiencing an unprecedented viral circulation. The omicron variant is now prevalent in countries and will soon establish dominance.

However, hospitalization has slowed down a bit, and intensive care rates remain stable, according to Patrick Mathis, head of the OFSP’s Crisis Management and Collaboration Division, during a health update on January 4, 2022. Confederation Weekly.

While Omicron patients have time to develop severe forms of Kovid-19, should we expect hospital saturation in the next 15 days? Samia Hurst, Vice President of the Confederation’s Kovid-19 Task Force and Bio-Ethics at UNIG, which summarizes the state of scientific knowledge, opined:

“The first data on omiciron and intensive care indicate that it is certainly part of the potential to significantly reduce the risk in people who have been vaccinated or who have recovered. Therefore the effects of omicarone in intensive care remain uncertain.

One finding is based on the observation of conditions across the channel that the unprecedented amount of omicarone wave is still being treated in hospital with consequences.

“Ireland and England report that intensive care in hospitals will not be a factor in the omiciron wave,” continues Samia Hearst:

“Hospitals in London, for example, are seeing a rapid increase in admissions, but not yet in intensive care.”

The reason for this phenomenon is the delay between the wave of infection and its impact in the hospital, in the order of 2 to 3 weeks with the previous variants. “Currently, 90% of Kovid patients in the intensive care unit have infections in the delta,” the bioethicist explained. But there is no doubt that this is related to Omicron’s low virus.

Virus deficiency. It is difficult to assess the severity of omicron-linked infections, as it is important to be able to distinguish between the intrinsic virulence of the variant – the risk of serious form of infection in an innocent person – and its apparent virulence. The population is partially immune and protected from harsh forms.

But epidemiologists are working on it, which provides convincing figures on the virality quoted by the task force in assessing the situation:

People who have been vaccinated against previous variants – either as a result of the vaccine or a previous infection – are well protected from severe forms of omicron infection, and their immunity is partial. .

The storm. What should we fear in Switzerland over the next two weeks, if not the saturation of intensive care?

• “Hospitals are increasingly concerned that their own staff affected by Kovid are on quarantine,” said Rudol Howry, president of the Association of Cantonal Physicians.

• “Many of us have not been vaccinated or cured of the Kovid-19 vaccine. Hospitals should expect a heavier burden again, ”added Samia Hurst.

In short, the double burden of Kovid patients and the lack of isolation-quarantine make traditional care services more difficult than intensive care. On the FOPH side, we expect the hospital curve to rise soon.

The task force also anticipates unprecedented difficulties in areas of the economy. Samia Hurst:

“For private companies, the omiciron wave can pose different challenges than previous waves, during which time demand has temporarily decreased. This will have a significant impact on workers, with supply declining as demand remains constant. When companies isolate a significant portion of their workforce, it is prudent to prepare action plans. ”

As for the result Steps decided just before Christmas According to the Federal Council, the task force thinks this is not enough to break the dynamics of the epidemic. Samia Hurst:

“What we are doing now is not enough to stop the omiciron wave, we are seeing an increase in the number of cases every week,” he said.

Although the results of the action taken on December 20 can still be seen – many things have happened, holidays, school holidays, return to school – we see that Omikron has a very big epidemic and the previous version has enough action. It’s not enough to bring it down. It’s not useless, it’s slow, but it’s not enough.