During an epidemic, it is difficult to talk about the long run in a country where masks and syringes are missing. However, the templates of geopolitics are moving so fast that I fear there is not much time left for Brazil to change its position to reopen some perspectives in the future.
Two recent international agreements should draw our attention.
On November 15, 2020, an agreement was signed to create the RCEP (Integrated Regional Economic Partnership). Through this agreement, ten ASEAN member states (Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and six other countries) join the five countries in their respective free trade zones (Japan, Korea, China, Australia and New Zealand). The block that collects 30% of world GDP.
This week, China and the European Union sealed a comprehensive investment agreement that would facilitate comprehensive direct investment, the undisputed achievement of Angela Merkel on the eve of Joe Biden’s inauguration. Despite setbacks and challenges, autonomy continues with the European Project Brexit.
In America, things are not going so well. Two measures under the Trump administration changed local perspectives. It was a requirement of the USCA to maintain free trade agreements with Mexico and Canada, or through which they benefited, especially in terms of services and property ownership.
In addition, Trump withdrew the U.S. from discussions on the Trans-Pacific partnership over differences over government investment and purchases. Twelve countries along the Pacific border (including Chile, Peru, New Zealand and Singapore) took the initiative, now under a comprehensive and progressive agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Without the USA.
The USA is the most successful interstate cooperative in history: 13 colonies that have become 50 strong states under the Constitution. Even with the Democrats, the United States is unlikely to observe Latin America as a continental region of economic development.
Bolsonaro does not miss the opportunity to make our main regional partner Argentina and global China hostile. Although he practically agreed to all European demands for the termination of the EU-Mercosur agreement, he was unable to obtain the necessary approval from the parliaments of European countries due to his public commitment to environmental destruction.
Without guidance and leadership we will lose two more years. Abroad, Bolsonaro is only the subject of comedy shows. However, after that we have to be prepared from the beginning.
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