The tax burden in Italy is 42.5%, but it will be reduced

pressione fiscale

Ours is not the highest. Nothing like Denmark (46.3%)

Italy is one of the countries where you pay More taxes. Workers and companies have been complaining about this for some time, and it contains tax reform proposals In the delegation The recent launch of the Draghi government has sparked controversy, with fears that at least part of the real estate tax will be tightened in the case.

OECD data confirms this, The tax burden in our country is 42.5%. It is higher in only four countries Denmark First, it is 46.3%, in France it is 45.4%, in Belgium and Sweden it is 42.9%.

However, the most representative comparison goes with it Media in OECD Countries, Or the most advanced in the world, it is 33.8%, very low. Clearly below average USA, Which is only 24.5%.

It is clear that the tax burden is highest in Europe, even considering the richest states. In addition to the USA, it is lower than Italian or French Japan, Where it is 32%, and so on Israel, It is reduced to 30.5%.

This is the data for 2019, and by 2020 these values ​​have risen due to the recession caused by Kovid around the world, and the denominator has fallen, Pill.

What is the tax burden?

It is true that we know the tax burden The ratio between the value of tax revenue and GDP. In fact, it has been modified by the first and second trends. It can be reduced if the GDP or the wealth of the country increases to initiate tax-reducing reforms. On the other hand, if there is an increase in taxes or you fall into one, it will grow Recession So GDP is declining. The second is exactly that 2020 case, Or even other moments of crisis like chasing the Lehman Brothers.

If the economy is growing well, this ratio will look small, and of course a good circle will often stick, thereby allowing for further growth. Tax cuts So further reduce the tax burden, and therefore on the numerical side.

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It has another way of going down or up. In addition, it is associated with the evacuation phenomenon, We know better in Italy. In fact, if it decreases for a variety of reasons and the groundwater level rises, there will be higher returns, so there will be a higher tax burden without changing tax rates.

That’s almost it It happened in the case of our country, In 2019 this pressure increased more than the previous year and two years ago.

The tendency of the tax burden

In our country The tax burden increased over timeIn 1990 it was 36.3% of GDP, up from 40% to 40.5%, only in 1993, and only in the recession in Italy following the September 1992 depreciation of the cheap and abandoned lira. EMS

After returning below the 40% limit for two years, in 1994 and 1995, higher taxes were introduced to reduce the deficit. Enter the Euro. Only in other cases can the tax burden be reduced from 39% to 40%, and in 1998, 2002, 2004 and 2005, and from 2006 it may have been more than 40%. 43.8% record in 2013. It is mainly related to the expansion crisis due to the economic downturn, the huge fight against tax evasion and the increase in housing taxes.

Recovery and some tax cuts (such as tax cuts or new appointments or IRAP cuts) reduced the tax burden again between 2014 and 2018, reaching 41.9%, and then returning to 2019.

What about the future? According to the latter Update to Note Def After reaching 42.8% in 2021 and 2020, it will be reduced to 41.9%, 42% in 2022, 41.7% in 2023 and 41.5% in 2024. , In fact for a reason Exception Recovery Income will increase as the economy grows.

Bundle of 100 Euro bonus and unannounced estimate

In fact, the sinking is a factor that works in calculating the tax burden in another way. It is also included in the estimates of Eurostat and OECD An account of the “gray” economy To determine the most reliable amount of GDP, several measures are measured, from debt to the taxpayer’s burden.

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GDP is often revised upwards considerably, especially in the case of countries where tax evasion has always been a fundamental role, such as Italy. Without this revaluation “on the table”, the Italian tax burden would be even more significant, reaching 48.2%, according to estimates by the National Federation of Accountants. Or number one in Europe.

However, the unobserved economy cannot be ignored, and if we do not have accurate numbers, the solution is not to pretend they do not exist.

But that is not enough, there is another factor affecting the calculation of the tax burden in our country, which is very recent. This is it The bonus is 80 euros, up from 100 euros this year. Since the introduction of the European Commission during the Renzi government in 2014, this has not been a relief, but is considered a public expense, so the tax burden is not going to be reduced as the executive intended.

After that, there is a double estimate in the official official government documents: the tax official tax burden, adopted at the European level, and 100 euro net. Second, gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to decline from 42.8 percent to 42.1 percent by 2020. In addition, by 2021, it will drop to 41.2 percent from 41.9 percent.

Tax burden in other European countries

Among our most important neighbors We see above all the countries with less tax burden. The tax burden of GermanyFor example, according to OECD data for 2019, it was 38.8%, which has been increasing over the years. However, in 1990 it was 34.8% and in 2004 it was 34.3%, with fluctuations between these values ​​and current values ​​over the last three decades.

as well as Spain Income is much lower than in Italy compared to GDP. 34.7% in 2019, but previously it was 36.4% in 2007. The tax burden of Swiss Two years ago it was 28.5%, never growing to a higher level, in fact it was less than 24% in the early 1990s.

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In contrast, the French are among the few who pay more taxes than the Italians. In their case, the ratio of income to GDP was 45.4% in 2019, down slightly from 46.1% in 2017, the highest ever reached, but increasing to 40% in any case, compared to levels in the early 1990s.

Where they cut taxes

In a small group of countries with a lower tax burden in the coming decades, Europe has two different realities, Sweden and Ireland.

In the first case, it was one of the hallmarks of government intervention around the world, and by the end of the millennium the tax burden on the economy had reached 48.8 percent, but through the stimulus of private management in some sectors (e.g. education), corporate tax cuts have been able to reduce the tax burden above all else. In 2019, it was 42.9%, slightly higher than in Italy.

Ireland Instead it had no particularly high taxes and did not exceed 34.7% of GDP revenue. But over the past decade, thanks to the huge expansion of the economy and the preference given to companies that have settled in and around Dublin, the Irish tax burden In 2019, it dropped to 22.7%.

It is no coincidence that it stands on the indictment Tax haven In fact. Yet the model chosen by the Irish is unlikely to change in the coming years. Instead, other countries will try to lower their tax rates to make multinationals more attractive.

Data indicate 1990-2021

Source: Ocse, Nadef

Also read: VAT reduces tax evasion in Italy

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