What can you expect from the Portuguese economy?
According to IMF forecasts, we will have 4.4% growth in 2021 and 5.1% growth in 2022. It sounds good, but let’s not forget that in 2020, the year of the Covid, we had a huge gap. Portugal is one of the economies most affected by the pandemic compared to the eastern countries. Is it because? We relied heavily on tourism and when it collapsed it further affected the Portuguese economy. Looking at the IMF forecasts, this may seem like a surprising result, but it is still a basic result compared to the recession we took in 2020, but more importantly, Portugal is the second country with the largest recession in the OECD. 2019. If you compare 2021 to 2019, we have a decline of 4.15% and in Spain 6.8%. The two OECD countries are facing the biggest recession. Although we have some growth in 2021, it is still not enough to make up for the huge decline we had in 2020, and there have been other forecasts recently showing that Portugal will register between the fourth quarter of 2019 and the third quarter of 2021. 2.2%, Spain 6.6% decline. While IMF figures may seem reasonable, GDP will be lower than in 2019.
Did the epidemic and the extra costs mess up the accounts?
It shows the weakness of the Portuguese economy and the lack of recovery capacity. Ireland topped the list with 20% growth in 2021 compared to 2019, and Ireland also had Kovid. This shows the weakness of the Portuguese economy, which Ireland has not been able to recover, which we have compared within the Eurozone. The IMF forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are also worrying, pointing to lower growth: 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively. Without forgetting Portugal’s place in the per capita GDP of purchasing power, we can return to anemic growth. It dropped to 15th place in 2000, 17th place in 2005, 19th place in 2010, 19th place in 2015 and 20th place in 2019 compared to 28 European countries. In 2021 we moved up to 22nd place and in 2026 the forecasts moved us to 23rd place. Portugal continues to decline in its per capita GDP rankings based on purchasing power parity. IMF forecasts already take into account the recovery and residency plan, which shows that there were no structural reforms in the country that would allow us to change our lives.
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