A graph from the “Financial Times” compares the transmission speed of the omiciron variant to that already known, the highest in the presence of this new edition. SARS-CoV-2 In cases registered in South Africa.
The genetic material from the virus is used to compare the percentage of cases caused by omicorons among the infections that are designed to identify the causative agent.
The image has gained traction on social networks since European countries began regulating flights departing after the World Health Organization, above all, from places where the strain spreads. (WHO) Declare the version considered a “concept variant”.
But does the graph show that this will be repeated around the world? What data already shows how much this new variant can slow the progressive resume in many countries, including Brazil?
Experts heard g1 Point out two things that are relevant to reading the graph:
- This shows that the transmission rate of one variant, including the already popular ones like Delta, is better than the others;
- But at the same time, the data only mentions South Africa, which has the lowest percentage of people getting vaccinated.
Therefore, it is unlikely that the analysis will be repeated in countries with different vaccination rates and in people already infected with other variants.
South Africa currently has 14.2 million people who have completed the vaccination schedule. This figure equates to 24 per cent of the country’s 59 million inhabitants.
Climb like a rocket
Analyzing the graph, epidemiologist Pedro Halal says that although they are noticed in a country where immunization is low, the curves are worrying.
“The only thing that might help is the pollution curve in a very poorly vaccinated population like South Africa. Perhaps in a more vaccinated population the variant could not create this curve that looks like a rocket launch. It is worrying, yes” – Pedro Halal, epidemiologist
Pedro halal in new variant: ‘It looks more transferable’
Ethel Masil, a professor at Ufes and a doctor in epidemiology, has a similar opinion.
They explain that the graph only shows the board rate which seems to be much higher than other variants like Delta.
“The time it took for her to establish dominance in South Africa was very fast, so that means she can spread the disease to more people. We do not yet know its effect on the severity, ”Ethel said.
Gonzalo Vesina, former president of Anvisa, summarizes this in a chronological comparison.
“The curves basically say this: what others have done in 100 days, Omicon has done in 25 days. What does that mean? It has logarithmic capacity that affects and makes new cases. It’s faster than beta.
Professor Tulio de Oliveira, director of the Center for Epidemic Response and Innovation in South Africa, is one of the researchers who found an increase in the prevalence of the new variant among cases in the country.
“This new variant, B.1.1.529, seems to be spreading very fast! It will overcome all the infections following a devastating delta wave in South Africa in two weeks,” the new variant (chart below) said Toulio. Blue) make up 75% of the last genomes already organized.
“Soon it will reach 100%,” the researcher said.
Graphic used by researcher Túlio de Oliveira to promote the popularity of B.1.1.529 in South Africa – Photo: Reconstruction / Twitter
The world is wary of omiciron: the World Health Organization classifies the new strain as a ‘concern variant’
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