Herman Khan (1922-1983) is universally regarded as the father of “futurology”, a branch of political science – inevitably inaccurate – aimed at finding out future conditions and predictions about the evolution or evolution of global geopolitical and chessboard competitions.
Khan was a mathematician and an expert in simulation game theory. He became famous in 1962 with the article “Think the Unthinkable”. He analyzed the consequences of the US-USSR thermonuclear collision.
This volume resonated widely in science and the media, and Khan was labeled “Dr. Strongelov”. Stanley Kubrick He admitted that he and the book were the inspiration for the plot of the main character of his famous film.
Despite being known for his theories about prophecy, at the end of his career, at a conference at the Rand Corporation in Santa Monica in 1980, he froze his enthusiastic fan base with the following phrase: “It is impossible to predict, especially the future”. (“It is impossible to predict, especially in the future”).
While it is true that those who want to predict future conditions should keep in mind Herman Khan’s theories, his 1980 text should be kept in mind when analyzing “what is to come”.
This paradoxical precaution, the immediate future, 2021, a future marked by the epidemic and its social and economic consequences, must be with us with predictable and decisive variables and implications on a planetary basis.
The New Year begins with terrible circumstances.
In Europe, Kovid-19 has caused not only a health catastrophe but also an economic catastrophe, the consequences of which can be felt for decades or even years.
In the United Kingdom, a new strain of the pandemic virus emerged as Britain’s exit from the European Union without any agreement with Brussels – perhaps in vain – as a deadline to approach a “no deal” breakthrough, apparently more contagious than spreading to other parts of the world.
This scientific fact prevented travel from England to all European countries and to many other countries of the world.
On the eve of its exit from Europe, England was practically banned altogether, as evidenced by the miles of trucks blocked on both sides of the channel.
It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post. The latest discussions on fishing rights in the Channel and the North Sea should lead the British to a complete ban on European fishing vessels from that water, which will not help the proactive approach of looking for a solution that avoids “no agreement”. ”, Although it is clear to everyone that failure to approve will wreak havoc on both sides of the channel.
The UK economy is currently in the throes of an epidemic, but it is undeniable that the future impact of Brexit on the UK’s global stability will be severe.
This not only had a positive effect on the economy (new, inevitable, rising tariffs, a decline in the value of real estate, a decline in employment, etc.), but also possible domestic upheavals: Ulster decided to open up what it intended to become the sole border between the Republic of Europe and Great Britain.
The closure of the Brexit border is seen by all Irish, Catholics and Protestants as an unfortunate one.
After years of depression and civil strife, the open frontier revived Ulster’s economy and helped the Republic of Ireland recover from the crisis of the 2000s.
Although still “enemies” in theory for religious reasons, Irish Catholics and Protestants unite in an effort to make London understand that religious hatred is subsiding and that Ulster and Ireland are determined to open the border through border ties. Brexit weakens Protestant Unionists with English motherland.
Scotland also shows signs of mild discomfort.
The Scots in the referendum on Europe voted en masse to “continue” and were unwilling to give the consequences of leaving Europe.
After the vote of confidence, the Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon Declared: “The Scots are very angry because we have always opposed Brexit. Anger and grief should give us more strength to achieve freedom. It will happen, you see. It’s just a matter of time. “
Scotland will hold general elections next May. In the coming days, Sturgeon reiterated that if his party wins the election, the Scottish National Party, “it will be with the promise that the Scots will vote in a referendum.” Freedom “.
To reiterate her distance from London for the millions of Europeans who regularly work in Great Britain, the Scottish Prime Minister wrote an open letter to the citizens of Europe living in Scotland. Scotland invites you not to leave, “Scotland is your home, you are welcome here, we want you to stay … you are our friends, family and neighbors … we will help you to exercise your rights”.
Clear words referring to a political storm in London, not only the devastation of the epidemic in the year it is about to begin, but also the economic repercussions of an unplanned Brexit and politicians from Scotland and Ireland.
A situation that may lead to questioning the essence and integrity of a “nation” that is no longer “united” and the existential philosophy of an arrogant island nation are also taught by popular phrases such as “Storm on the Channel”. The continent is isolated. “
However, by 2021, the continent’s “isolation” will be much appreciated by its glorious subjects.
On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, the presidency Biden This will definitely lead to a decisive reversal of isolation trends Donald TrumpHowever, trends that have not prevented the outgoing president from making the biggest impact on US foreign policy in recent years: Israel’s reconciliation with the Arab world, which Trump planned and implemented with the active support of the Saudi Crown Prince, Muhammad bin Salman.
This is the greatest legacy that Donald Trump has left to Joe Biden.
A legacy that the new Washington administration must carefully consider, if it sums up the role of the great force that is severing it Obama Errors of Clinton And Kerry They lost her in the Middle East.
Although Joe Biden’s new White House agenda and redefining relations with China are at the forefront, after Trump – satisfied with re-balancing trade with Beijing – actually liberated the region for the Chinese in Africa. In the Middle East, relations with Saudi Arabia need to be redefined if the US is to return to playing a key role in the Middle East imbalance (and imbalance …).
We learn from Riyadh that the US presidential election result is causing concern in court circles.
Here, Salman bin Abdelaziz, Is well aware of the hostility of the democratic element of the Congress towards the country and of the sincere activism of the Crown Prince. Bin SalmanWho is clearly accused of inciting the murder of a dissident journalist. Jamal Kashoggi, On October 2, 2018 on the premises of the Saudi Embassy in Turkey.
Many Democratic deputies and senators are influencing Congress to support the imposition of “publicity” sanctions against key members of the Crown Prince’s entourage.
The former Saudi interior minister also unveiled a detailed document of the prince’s verdict Muhammad bin Najeef, And his closest follower Saad Al JabriThe two fled to the United States to avoid arrest on bribery charges.
The allegations stem from allegations of dubious contracts with American companies signed by bin Najib on the instructions of al-Jabri. The second was a CIA collaborator who is now being held and kept in a secret location in Virginia.
The Saudis are well aware that the CAA is indefinitely protecting its allies and will therefore exert all its influence on the new regime to avoid extradition to Saudi Arabia.
Although Biden spoke harshly against Saudi Arabia during the election campaign, they recall in Riyadh that, as Obama’s vice president, the White House’s new tenant never showed hostility to the most powerful country in the Persian Gulf. .
Credible diplomatic sources say that King Salman will be very careful about Washington’s new approach to Riyadh. He would even sacrifice the crown prince to keep the conversation open with the Americans. At the beginning of the creative dialogue with the new American government.
It is no secret that the King was not at all happy with Muhammad bin Salman’s activism towards Israel and his commitment to establish diplomatic relations between Jerusalem, Bahrain, the Emirates and Sudan.
It is clear that the decline of the crown prince will not be able to defeat the new course of Arab-Israeli relations with adverse or paralyzing consequences, a new course that the new Biden regime also hopes for.
As we can see, the dossiers that Trump gave to his successor were not simple. At another time we will interact with others.
Considering Herman Khan’s “prophecy” wisdom, the coming year, from a geopolitical point of view, will be nothing but boring.