Hermann Khan (1922-1983) is universally regarded as the father of “futurology”, a branch of political science – inevitably inaccurate – aimed at finding out future conditions and predictions about the evolution or emergence of global, chessboard geopolitical competition.
Khan was a mathematician and an expert in simulation game theory. He became famous in 1962 with the article “Think the Unthinkable”. He analyzed the consequences of the US-USSR thermonuclear collision.
This volume resonated widely in science and the media, and Khan was labeled “Dr. Strongelow” because Stanley Kubrick admitted that he and his book inspired him to draft the main character of his famous film.
Despite being famous for his theories about prophecy, at the end of his career, during a conference at the Rand Corporation in Santa Monica in 1980, he froze his enthusiastic fan base with the following phrase: “It is impossible to predict, especially the future”. (“It is impossible to predict, especially in the future”).
While it is true that those who want to predict future conditions should keep in mind Herman Khan’s theories, his 1980 text should be kept in mind when analyzing “what is to come”.
This paradoxical precaution, the immediate future, 2021, a future marked by the epidemic and its social and economic consequences, must be with us with predictable and decisive variables and implications on a planetary basis.
The New Year begins with terrible circumstances.
In Europe, Kovid 19 has caused not only a health disaster but also a financial disaster, the consequences of which can be felt for decades or even years.
In the United Kingdom, as a deadline to avoid “No Deal Brexit”, Britain’s exit from the European Union without any agreement with Brussels – perhaps in vain – has emerged as a new strain of the pandemic virus, apparently more contagious than it is spreading to other parts of the world.
This scientific fact prevented travel from England to all European countries and to many other countries of the world.
On the eve of its exit from Europe, England was practically banned altogether, as evidenced by the miles of trucks blocked on both sides of the channel.
It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post. The latest discussions on fishing rights in the Channel and the North Sea are sure to lead the British to a complete ban on European fishing vessels from that water, “no agreement”, although it is clear to everyone on both sides that failure to agree will cause damage on both sides of the channel.
The UK economy is currently reeling from the epidemic, but it is undisputed that the future of Brexit will affect the UK’s global stability.
This not only had a positive effect on the economy (new, inevitable, rising tariffs, a decline in the value of real estate, a decline in employment, etc.), but also possible domestic upheavals: Ulster decided to open up what it intended to become the sole border between the Republic of Europe and Great Britain.
The closure of the Brexit border is seen by all Irish, Catholics and Protestants as an unfortunate one.
After years of depression and civil strife, the open frontier revived Ulster’s economy and helped the Republic of Ireland recover from the crisis of the 2000s.
Although still “enemies” in theory for religious reasons, Irish Catholics and Protestants unite in an effort to make London understand that religious hatred is subsiding and that Ulster and Ireland are determined to open the border through border ties. Brexit weakens Protestant Unionists with English motherland.
Scotland also shows signs of mild discomfort.
The Scots in the referendum on Europe voted en masse to “continue” and were unwilling to give the consequences of leaving Europe.
After the vote of confidence, Scottish Premier Nicola Sturgeon declared: “We are always angry with the Scots because we have always opposed Brexit. Anger and grief should give us more strength to achieve freedom. It will happen, you see. It’s just a matter of time. “
Scotland will hold a general election next May, and Sturgeon reiterated in recent days that if his party, the Scottish National Party, wins the election, it will “promise the Scots a chance to vote in a referendum.” Freedom “.
To reiterate her distance from London for the millions of Europeans who regularly work in Great Britain, the Scottish Prime Minister wrote an open letter to the citizens of Europe living in Scotland. Scotland invites you not to leave, “Scotland is your home, you are welcome here, we want you to stay … you are our friends, family and neighbors … we will help you to exercise your rights”.
Clear words referring to a political storm in London, not only the devastation of the Pandemic in the year it is about to begin, but also the economic repercussions of the unplanned Brexit and the political repercussions coming from Scotland and Ireland.
A situation that may lead to questioning the essence and integrity of a “kingdom” teaches the existential philosophy of an arrogant island people, no longer “United,” and popular verses such as “Storm on the Channel”. The continent is isolated. “
However, by 2021, the continent’s “isolation” will be much appreciated by its glorious subjects.
On the other shores of the Atlantic Ocean, Biden’s presidency will lead to a decisive turning point from Donald Trump’s isolationist tendencies, which has not prevented the president from hitting one of the most important recent blows in U.S. foreign policy. Years: Israeli Pact with the Arab World, planned and implemented by Trump, with the active support of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
This is the greatest legacy that Donald Trump has left to Joe Biden.
The new Washington administration needs to carefully consider summing up the role of the great power in the Middle East that led to the dismissal of Obama and the mistakes of Clinton and Kerry.
Although redefining relations with China has been on the agenda of Joe Biden’s new White House agenda, after Trump – satisfied with re-balancing trade with Beijing – actually liberated the region for the Chinese in Africa. Relations with Saudi Arabia in the Far East need to be redefined
The United States also wants to play an important role in the balance (and imbalance) of the West.
We learn from Riyadh that the US presidential election result is causing concern in court circles.
King Salman bin Abdelaziz is well aware of the hostility of the democratic component of the Congress towards the King and the sincere activism of Crown Prince bin Salman. On the premises of the Saudi Embassy in Turkey on October 2, 2018.
Many Democratic deputies and senators are influencing Congress to support the imposition of “publicity” sanctions against key members of the Crown Prince’s entourage.
Former Saudi Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin Najib and his close aide Saad al-Jabri have fled to the United States to avoid arrest on corruption charges.
The allegations stem from allegations of dubious contracts with American companies signed by bin Najib on the instructions of al-Jabri.
The second was a CIA collaborator who is now being held and kept in a secret location in Virginia.
The Saudis are well aware that the CAA is indefinitely protecting its allies and will therefore exert all its influence on the new regime to avoid extradition to Saudi Arabia.
Although Biden spoke harshly against Saudi Arabia during the election campaign, they recall in Riyadh that, as Obama’s vice president, the White House’s new tenant never showed hostility to the most powerful country in the Persian Gulf. .
Credible diplomatic sources say that King Salman will be very careful about Washington’s new approach to Riyadh. He would even sacrifice the crown prince to keep the conversation open with the Americans. Beginning of constructive dialogue with the new American government.
It is no secret that the King was not at all happy with Mohammed bin Salman’s activism towards Israel and the commitment to establish diplomatic relations between Jerusalem, Bahrain, the Emirates and Sudan.
It is clear that the decline of the Crown Prince will not be able to defeat the new course of Arab-Israeli relations with negative or paralyzing consequences, and the new Biden regime is in favor.
As we can see, the dossiers that Trump gave to his successor were not simple. At another time we will interact with others.
Considering Herman Khan’s “prophecy” wisdom, the coming year, from a geopolitical point of view, will be nothing but boring.