Climate change is common in April. This is what defines off seasons. However, let us say the extreme differences this April. After the cold records and the early snowfall of the month, we moved on to summer with the ideal temperature for June. Thus, from 10 degrees Celsius above the season average, we reached 10 degrees Celsius, a difference of 20 degrees Celsius in just half a month. The changes are so quick and clear that it is difficult to define exactly what awaits us in the remaining months.
After winter and summer, autumn can arrive next week and the return of rain is possible. Despite the imminent deadline, uncertainties are still important. Let us analyze the situation in detail.
The map above shows the geopotential defect of April 20th. As for concrete, in blue, we have low pressure and in orange we have high pressure. We notice that many cold drops are spreading in Europe. The first will stand on the Atlantic coast off the coast of Ireland, the other will pass over southern Spain, and the last will pass through Eastern Europe. These cold drops and their interaction with the environment will determine next week’s weather. What we are most interested in is the one located between Spain and North Africa.
Its exact location and therefore the distance or proximity to our area will determine the risk of rain. Despite a reasonable time frame at this stage (3 to 4 days), the models do not actually match. Cold drop is present in all conditions, but its exact path varies from one model to another. Rainfall may spread in Spain, with very little overflow in our area or in the Lion Bay, or even a small amount of rain or showers may increase more clearly in our departments, a number of circumstances are suggested.
It still seems likely to rain during the week, which is good news because we really need it. When approaching the Rhne, it seems likely that the western part of the region will be more irrigated due to the lack of continuous rainfall, but this is still very theoretical. The first rain is likely between Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, before spreading to other parts of the region, especially between Odin and Poe.
In this humid climate the temperature will drop. Strictly speaking, there are no colds, but we need to find cool seasonal values that are temporary and local. If we look further, especially next weekend, the cold will move to Italy, but the latter, which was on the coast of Ireland, may take over with more unrest as a result. Therefore, we are entering a period of permanent obstacles. All this needs to be gradually revised.
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