Climate change has increased the risk of heat waves breaking records in India and Pakistan 100 times, and increased the likelihood of such events occurring more frequently in the future, according to a British Met Office study.
An analysis published on Wednesday means that extreme temperature events predicted every three centuries are now likely to occur every three years.
The study assessed the possibility of surpassing the record highs observed in April and May 2010, indicating the highest average temperatures in April and May since 1900.
An extension study that estimates the impact of climate change on a particular climatic event shows that in 2010 the natural probability of a heat wave exceeding the average temperature was once every 312 years.
However, in the current climate, which explains climate change, the potential increases every 3.1 years.
Scientists estimate that the probability of a heat wave will increase every 1.15 years by the end of the century.
“With temperatures hovering above 50 degrees Celsius for the next few days, it is clear that the current heat wave is a very strong weather event affecting communities and livelihoods,” said Professor Peter Stott, a meteorologist at the Center for Meteorology.
While a new record is believed to be possible, meteorologists will have to wait until the end of this month – when all temperature records are collected from April to May – to see if the current heat wave will exceed the limit. Experienced in 2010.
“Heat waves are a feature of the pre-Muslim climate in April and May,” said Nikos Christidis, author of the study.
Christidis said: “Climate change determines the intensity of heat during these periods, causing a record 100-fold increase in temperature. At the end of the century, increasing climate change will cause temperatures to rise by these values. Average each year. “
From large multi-model ensembles to prototype climate models, scientists have adopted peer-reviewed risk-based methodology that determines the likelihood of extreme events with or without human influence.
They said the pre-monsoon heat wave had eased a bit after the maximum temperature in Pakistan reached 51 degrees Celsius on Sunday.
“However, from the middle of the week, the temperature is likely to rise again, reaching its peak at the end of the week or even at the end of the week. In some places the maximum temperature is likely to reach 50 degrees Celsius at night.
“Throughout the weekend, temperatures are likely to drop below average, with the possibility of fires (mainly from planned agricultural burns) that could worsen air quality.
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