Greenland is melting, and a new model suggests we’re underestimating its impact.

Greenland is the largest island in the world and has the largest ice mass of northern golfers. When all that ice melts, the ocean rises More than 7 m.

But that’s not going to happen, is it? Well, realizing how soon the ice sheet will melt in the next century is a crucial and important question that scientists are trying to tackle with the micrometerical models of ice sheets. The rest interact with the climate system.

The problem is that the models are not very good at reconstructing recent observations, limiting our poor knowledge of the side glass area and the vast terrain of the fjords in which snow passes and falls.

One way to solve this problem is to look at how the ice sheet responds to past climate change and to compare the predictions of future models with changes in temperature. That’s what my colleagues and I did in a new study published in a journal Natural communication.

We examined three of the largest glaciers in Greenland, and scientists used historical aerial photographs taken directly over the years to reconstruct how the size of these glaciers changed between 1880 and 2012.

The approach is based on the idea that the past can help predict the future, not just in science, but in all areas of life.

But unlike other “classes” in history, the future climate and geography will not be a carbon copy of the past. However, if we understand how sensitive the ice sheet is to the temperature fluctuations of the last century, it can provide a useful guide to how it will react in the next century.

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We found that the 8.1 mm rise in sea level was caused by three large glaciers, contributing 15 percent of the total ice sheet.

During our study period, the global sea level rose to about 20 cm, and the ice from these three Greenland glaciers melted because of the height of the A5 leaflet and about the width of the finger.

Usually melts

What does this tell us about the future behavior of the ice sheet? In 2013, a Modeling studies Fesnik and colleagues looked at the same “big three” glaciers (Jacobshavan Isbrai on the west of the island, Helhem on the east, and Kangarluswak on the east) and predicted how they would react in different seasons in the future.

These scenes are the most called RCP 8.5 It is believed that economic growth will continue throughout the 21st century, resulting in a global average temperature of 3.7 C (4.8 ˚ C higher than before industrialization or after 1850).

This situation is sometimes referred to as the Business General (BAU) Active discussion About how difficult RCP 8.5 is among climate researchers. However, a recent study by a group of U.S. scientists suggests that this may be the most appropriate scenario. At least until 2050.

For some reason Polar applicationIt is likely to reach more than twice the speed of the Arctic global average, with climate models indicating that 8.3 degrees Celsius in Greenland is moderate, and RCP 8.5.

Despite this dramatic and dramatic rise in temperature, Fez’s modeling study predicts that by 2100 the “big three” will contribute to sea level rise, which will reach 1.5 degrees Celsius in the twentieth century. . . How can this be?

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Our conclusion is that there is even a shortage of models Available with the latest and best available modes It is used to assess how the entire ice sheet will react to the next century Climate change.

These models show a relatively weak relationship between climate change and ice melting Our results Suggest that it is very strong.

Estimates based on these models are therefore less likely to minimize the impact on the ice sheet. Other evidence Support This Conclusion.

What does all this mean? If the ever-alarming RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions continue, Greenland’s ice sheets will begin to melt at a very low rate we have not seen for at least 130,000 years, the coast and its future. Because there is. Millions of people Those living in low-lying areas.

Jonathan Bomber, Professor of Physical Geography, University of Bristol.

This article has been republished Conversation Under the Creative Commons license. Read them Original article.

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