Chinese rocket expected to land in China this weekend Santa saw Catherine in the sky. This moment was recorded by the monitoring camera of a station located in Monte Castello in the northern part of the state. The images were taken at 6:30 pm on Friday (7) at the station of amateur astronomer Josimar Justino, part of the Brazilian Meteor Monitoring Network (BRAMON).
In an interview with G1, Marcelo Surita, technical director of Bramon, explained that the rocket was observed in Rio Grande do Sul, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais on Thursday (6) and Saturday (8). “We’m sure it’s a rocket. First, it’s about passing through space and time, and we can see a change in brightness in the pictures.
The wreckage of the rocket should return to Earth within the next few hours, in a still unknown location. In this latest update, the European Space Agency (EUST) pointed out that this Saturday, at 8:32 pm, should be Brasilia.
SST confirms that the object is up, and because of its inclination. Projects re-entry into the 41.48 latitude range. “In this area, most of the land is covered by oceans or uninhabited areas, so the statistics of soil impact in populated areas are low,” the report says. However, the forecast is uncertain because “the object is uncontrollable, and better calculations are possible just a few hours before the actual re-entry”, he thinks.
In May 2020, another African rocket went out of control in the Atlantic Ocean near West Africa.
350 cameras are ready to record the re-entry of the Chinese rocket over Brazil
* Information from Brahman and RTP News Agency
News of Many people are worried that a large Chinese rocket will hit the ground uncontrollably. Statistically, the risk of certain parts of the rocket hitting or damaging people is very small. However, as we return to our atmosphere, the central phase of Long March 5B should provide a realistic view of the sky. If this happens in the Brazilian region, about 350 Clima O Vivo and Brahman cameras will be ready to record it all. Estimates by climate monitoring company Clima Io Vivo, the international community and the Brazilian Meteorological Network (BRAMON) show a 1.92% chance of re-entering Brazil. The rocket was launched on April 29 with the aim of launching the first module of China’s new space station.
It should be noted that it is normal for objects abandoned in orbit to re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere. Recently, the second phase of an Ariane 5 rocket entered Earth again, seen in several cities from Pare to Sier. Another case was the second phase of Falcon-9 seen in the American Northwest sky. These pieces will be just a few tons “empty” and, therefore, will completely evaporate when re-entered.
The center stage of the Chinese Long March 5B rocket is 33 meters long, 5 in diameter and 21 tons.
Event of the 70s
In 1979, Skylab, the first American space station, recaptured Earth in a partially uncontrolled manner. The piece weighed more than 70 tons, and its debris spread over a large area of the Indian Ocean and western Australia. After the episode, international protocols were established to prevent the unrestricted re-entry of more than 10 tons of material.
Why the rocket needs to re-enter the atmosphere
“In order to orbit the Earth, any object must travel at a speed of 27,000 kilometers per hour, which creates a concentrated force that resolves gravity,” Brahman explains. Long March 5b remained in low orbit, reaching an altitude of 170 km closest to the surface. “At this altitude, there are enough particles of atmospheric gases to be pulled, which slows down the rocket, which in turn gradually maintains gravity. With each orbit around the Earth, the traction speed decreases. Is on the way back, and its orbit will deteriorate until it reaches the breaking point, causing extreme heat and mechanical decay to cause the rocket to crash and ignite for some time, explains a note on the Brahman website.
Predictions for re-entry
Given the height of the object, it is difficult to predict where it will end up, as the lower layers of the atmosphere will be more susceptible to variations in density. In fact, “we don’t know when it will fall,” Brobrinsky comments. It was scheduled to land on GMT (4pm in Brasilia) this Friday, Saturday at 9.50pm and Sunday at 7am. Although forecasts are more accurate over time, “an hour before the impact, uncertainty will be better,” experts add.
The first module of the Chinese spacecraft is now returning to Earth. His path is uncontrollable because the designers thought it would naturally decompose into atmosphere. The problem is that the rocket is unlikely to be completely destroyed due to the large mass. According to Florent Delifi, an astronomer at the Paris-PSL Observatory, the lighter parts will certainly evaporate, but “some fragments will survive” given the size of the object.
In addition, “if the rocket is made of non-decomposable material when it enters the atmosphere, and it seems to be happening, the risk is higher,” Delphi commented. Nicholas Brobinsky, head of engineering and innovation at the European Space Agency (ESA), told AFP that China should “anticipate regulated revenue with retro rockets” as the Russians did when they left the Mir station.
Bodies related to aviation safety and defense monitor the fall of the rocket wreckage. They know the orbit it contains and how high it is. “We hope it will not hurt anyone,” said Lloyd Austin, the US Secretary of Defense. “We look forward to the ocean or something like that,” he added.
Brahman points out that 60 to 80% of the rocket mass must be used when re-entering the Tero. The resistive parts must continue to “burn” until the atmospheric resistance significantly reduces their speed. Therefore, the network explains that the remaining fragments must extend up to a thousand kilometers through a strip of surface and reach the ground at very low speeds.
Where to fall
Considering the inclination of the rocket’s orbit, the probability of re – entry over the ocean is 73%, and 62% of its fragments do not reach the ground, as Brahman explains. If it actually falls to Earth, the risk of hitting or injuring a person is in the order of 1: 5000, especially in the southern hemisphere, where the population density is lower than in the northern hemisphere.
Live broadcast page calculating rocket position