Global warming is causing more, intensification, Discover a new study on paleoclimate. Researchers have been observing a ‘ming shm bias’ that may return if the ice sheet disappears over the last 66 million years.
It is becoming more and more clear Prolonged drought, unprecedented heat, constant wildfires, and frequent and severe storms in recent years are a direct result of global warming. Humans add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. And new Research The MIT indicates that extreme weather events in Earth’s ancient history are likely to make today’s planet more unstable as it warms.
The study that appears today Scientific progress, The Paleoclimatic record of the last 66 million years is examined during the Cenozoic period, which began shortly after the extinction of the dinosaurs. During this period, scientists discovered that the Earth experienced a surprising “ming shm bias” due to climate change. in other words, There were more ming events than cooling events (long periods of global warming, thousands to tens of thousands of years). Furthermore, with higher temperature fluctuations than the cooling events, the heating events were more intense.
Researchers say A possible explanation for this biased bias may be contained in the “multiplier effect”For example, due to volcanoes emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, moderate heating naturally accelerates certain biological and chemical processes that increase these fluctuations, leading to further warming on average.
Curiously, The team observed that this heating bias disappeared about 5 million years ago. When ice sheets begin to form in the northern hemisphere. It is not clear what the impact of ice on the Earth’s response to climate change will be. But a new study suggests that as the current Arctic ice recedes, a multiplicative effect may reappear. The result could be a further expansion of man-made global warming.
“The ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere will shrink and disappear as a long-term consequence of human activity,” says the study’s lead author. Constantine Arnshaid, Graduate in Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences from MIT. “Our research suggests that this could fundamentally make the Earth’s more susceptible to extreme long-term global warming events than seen in the geographical past.” Daniel Rothman, a professor of geophysics at MIT and co – founder and co – director of the MIT Lawrence Center, co – authored the study.
An unstable push
For your analysis, The team examined large databases of fossils containing deep-sea benthic foraminifera, which are single-celled organisms that have existed for hundreds of millions of years and have hard shells stored in the remains.. The structure of these shells affects ocean temperature as organisms grow; Therefore, shells are considered to be a reliable proxy for the Earth’s ancient temperature. For decades, scientists have analyzed the structure of these shells, collected them from around the world, and found dates in different eras to determine how the Earth’s temperature fluctuated over millions of years.
“When these data are used to study extreme weather events, most studies focus on large individual spikes of temperature, usually a few degrees Celsius warming,” says Arnsheid. “Instead, we try to look at the general statistics and consider all the fluctuations involved, rather than choosing the larger ones.”
The team first performed a statistical analysis of the data and found that over the past 66 million years, the distribution of global temperature fluctuations has not been similar to a typical bell curve. With symmetry tails representing the equal probability of extreme heat and extreme cold. Instead, the curve is noticeably curved, curving toward hotter than in cold events. The curve also exhibited a remarkably long tail, which represented more intense or hotter events than very severe cold events.
“This indicates that there is a kind of amplification compared to what I expected,” says Arnsheid. “Events All point to the basics that lead to this rejection or bias towards minor events. It is true to say that the Earth’s system is becoming more unstable in the sense of warming.”.
A warm multiplier
The team wondered if this bizarre bias could be the result of “multiplication noise” in the climate-carbon cycle. Scientists have long known that high temperatures accelerate biological and chemical processes to some extent. Since the carbon cycle, the main driver of long-term climate change, is made up of such processes, an increase in temperature can lead to large fluctuations, and the system can bend to extreme ming events.
In mathematics, there is a set of equations that describe such general amplifying or multiplication effects. The researchers applied this multiplication theory in their analysis to see if the equations could predict the distorted distribution, including the magnitude of the bias and the length of the tails.
In the end, they found it The data and the observed bias towards heating can be explained by multiplication theory. In other words, over the last 66 million years, the period of moderate ming warmth is likely to be augmented by multiplicative effects such as the reaction of biological and chemical processes that have made the planet more mediocre.
As part of the study, The researchers also analyzed the correlation between previous events and changes in Earth’s orbit.. For millions of years, the Earth’s orbit around the Sun has been more or less elliptical. However, scientists have wondered why so many previous mingling events seemed to coincide with these changes, and why these events, which could only be caused by changes in Earth’s orbit, show enormous mingling.
Therefore, Arnsheid and Rothman included changes in the Earth’s orbit in the multiplication model and analysis of the Earth’s temperature changes, and found that multiplier effects would increase predictably due to changes in the Earth’s orbits.
“The weather heats up and cools down in conjunction with orbital changes, but the orbital cycles themselves predict only moderate changes in climate,” Rothman concludes. “But if we consider a multiplication model, a moderate heating with this multiplier effect, These orbital changes may be due to extreme events occurring at the same time”. “Humans are forcing the system in a new way,” Arnshaid adds. “This study shows that as we increase in temperature, we are more likely to interact with these natural amplifying effects.”
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